Budget to make sweeping recast of direct taxes: SBI Research
According to SBI's research report Ecowrap, the upcoming Budget is likely to see an increase in personal income tax exemption limit, increase in section 80C exemption limit, interest exemption on housing loan and and at least reducing (if not abolishing) the lock in period for bank fixed deposits.
"We expect an increase in personal income tax exemption limit from Rs 2.5 lakh to Rs 3.0 lakh, increase in section 80C exemption limit from current Rs 1.5 lakh to Rs 2 lakh, interest exemption on housing loan from Rs 2 lakh to Rs 3 lakh and at least reducing (if not abolishing) the lock in period for bank fixed deposits from 5 years to 3 years for availing tax exemption," SBI Research said in its Ecowrap report.
The report, authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Adviser & GM, Economic Research Department, SBI noted that "such giveaways will cost Rs 35,300 crore but we expect this to be more than balanced by IDS2 revenue and cancelled note liabilities of RBI".
SBI Research expects tax collection under IDS to be around Rs 50,000 crore and cancelled liabilities from RBI to be around Rs 75,000 crore.
Following the demonetisation move, the recast in direct tax moves is expected to give a boost the economy.
"The demonetisation has changed the entire gamut of the economy. The GDP growth is expected to be grow by 7.1 per cent in 2016-17 compared to 7.6 per cent growth in 2015-16," it said.
The report further noted that the challenges for the budget this year are more formidable than they were in the previous year.
"There is no substitute to investment led growth as opposed to consumption led. A more prudent approach will be to select two-three high potential sectors for fiscal stimulus, agriculture being the most promising followed by SME," it said.