BJP projected to hold onto MP & Chhattisgarh, will lose grip on Rajasthan: ABP News-Lokniti CSDS Survey

In all the 3 states, Congress is doing better in rural areas; BJP seems to be taking big leads in urban areas; could urban voters end up saving the BJP once again like they did in Gujarat?

By: | Updated: 08 Nov 2018 08:31 PM
BJP projected to hold onto MP & Chhattisgarh, will lose grip on Rajasthan: ABP News-Lokniti CSDS Survey
New Delhi: The BJP is poised to win Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh assembly elections but is likely to lose Rajasthan, the latest and the last Opinion Poll commissioned by ABP News & Lokniti CSDS on the poll-bound states has revealed. The survey conducted ahead of the high-voltage battle could be of some relief to BJP which in the previous opinion poll was predicted to get drubbed in all the three states where it is in power.

As per the survey, in Madhya Pradesh the BJP is tipped to win 116 (-49) seats while Congress may collect 105 (+47) seats in the 230-member assembly. The other parties contesting here are likely to get about 9 seats in total. BJP is likely to win a 41 per cent vote share, a percentage higher than the Congress which has been out of power in the central state since 2003. Other parties are seen securing a total vote share of 19%. BJP had won 165 seats in 2013 while Congress had just won 58. Polling is scheduled for November 28 in the state. The results of the state elections will be declared on December 11. The magic figure in Madhya Pradesh is 115.

BJP set to retain Madhya Pradesh for fourth straight term: ABP Opinion Poll

In the case of Rajasthan, the ruling BJP is likely to bag 84 seats (-79), 26 short of the Congress’ tally of 110 seats (+89). Others including Mayawati’s BSP may gather 6 seats in the 200-member assembly, according to the opinion poll. Congress is expected to snap up 45% vote share while BJP may get 41%. Other parties including BSP likely to secure 14% of the total. The latest pre-poll projection ahead of the December 7 elections could be seen as a major setback for the BJP which is seeking a second term under the leadership of Vasundhara Raje. BJP had racked up 163 seats in 2013 while Congress had bagged a mere 21. The results of the state polls will be announced on December 11.

ABP News opinion poll predicts Congress’ victory in Rajasthan as anti-incumbency hits BJP hard

Chhattisgarh, where the jittery BJP unit, observing various opinion polls, may get a breather as it is pegged to clinch 56 seats (+7). Congress here is likely to get a measly 25 seats (-14) out of the 90 up for stakes. The Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) partnering with the BSP may get 9 seats in their account. The survey says BJP could obtain 43% vote share, Congress may grab 36% and the JCC-BSP combine 15%.  The BJP’s vote share is higher than the 2013 polls but appears it isn’t converting into seats. The Ajit Jogi factor is apparently striking the Congress’ prospect here. The BJP clinched 49 seats in 2013 assembly elections whereas the Congress party bagged 39 seats in the previous outing. The first phase of polling in Chhattisgarh is on November 12 while the second is on November 20. The counting of votes will be held on December 11.

Chhattisgarh Assembly Election 2018: ABP News opinion poll predicts BJP's victory; Raman Singh most preferred CM

Key takeaways from all the three states

  • Anti-incumbency sentiment is strongest in Rajasthan, followed by Madhya Pradesh; in Chhattisgarh many are non-committal on second chance for state government

  • In all the 3 states, Congress is doing better in rural areas; BJP seems to be taking big leads in urban areas; could urban voters end up saving the BJP once again like they did in Gujarat?

  • Farmer anger notwithstanding, many are still planning to vote for the BJP, particularly in Madhya Pradesh

  • Top two election issues across all 3 states are unemployment and price rise

  • Two in every five voters are aware of the PNB/Nirav Modi scam

  • Over one in every three has heard of the Rafale deal issue

  • Perception that Modi government is corrupt is strongest in Madhya Pradesh; many in Rajasthan do not see the Modi government as corrupt

  • Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan government seen by their voters as being corrupt; 62% call in MP see their government as being very or somewhat corrupt; in Rajasthan 58% described their government as very or somewhat corrupt

  • Narendra Modi’s personal popularity continues to be high; highest in Rajasthan

  • Rahul’s popularity is way less than Modi’s; he is most disliked in Rajasthan, does best in MP

  • All 3 state governments fare poorly on the price rise, corruption and job creation fronts


The survey in Madhya Pradesh was conducted from October 18 through October 25, 2018 among 5,512 voters in 235 locations (polling stations) spread across 57 assembly constituencies (the State has a total of 230 assembly constituencies). In Rajasthan, the survey was conducted from October 20 to October 26 among 5,554 voters in 205 locations situated in 50 assembly constituencies (out of 200). The Chhattisgarh survey was conducted between October 16 and October 26 among 3,026 voters in 122 locations spread across 30 assembly constituencies (out of 90).
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