Punjab headed for hung assembly, Congress to be single largest party: ABP News Survey
Congress seems to have gained with 47-55 seats. While AAP is predicted to dent the SAD share and get about 26-34 seats in Punjab polls which is headed for a hung assembly.
|Indian National Congress (Cong)||41-49||47-55|
|Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (SAD-BJP/SAD+)||50-58||28-36|
|Aam Aadmi Party-Lok Insaaf Party (AAP+)||12-18||26-34|
The second round of the opinion poll conducted by ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS in the state finds the SAD-BJP alliance to have fallen back by six per cent to 28% in terms of vote share in a span of just one month. The Congress which till a month ago was trailing the ruling combine by about three points has now taken the lead with 34 per cent. But the real gainer over the last month has been the Aam Aadmi Party whose vote share has risen by six percentage points to 27 percent.
Overall Estimated Vote Share if Assembly Polls had been held in third-fourth weeks of Jan
|Indian National Congress (Cong)||34||+3|
|Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (SAD-BJP/SAD+)||28||-6|
|Aam Aadmi Party-Lok Insaaf Party (AAP+)||27||+6|
The Aam Aadmi party, which is hoping to build on its 2014 Lok Sabha election breakthrough in Punjab, is doing extremely well in the Malwa region where the survey found it to be leading the triangular race with 33 percent votes. This region holds as many as 69 of the state’s 117 assembly seats.
Region-wise Vote: AAP now leads triangular race in Malwa, Cong well ahead in Majha
|Malwa - 69 seats||AAP+ 33 (26)||Cong 29 (28)||SAD+ 28 (33)||Oth 10 (13)|
|Majha - 25 seats||Cong 48 (38)||SAD+ 22 (35)||AAP+ 14 (10)||Oth 16 (17)|
|Doaba - 23 seats||SAD+ 36 (36)||Cong 33 (32)||AAP+ 23 (17)||Oth 8 (15)|
According to the survey, in rural Punjab, Congress is predicted to overtake the ruling alliance. In urban, Congress takes a lead with 35 per cent and AAP is at around 29 per cent.
Congress overtakes SAD+ in rural Punjab
|Vote % for|
|Vote % for|
|Vote % for|
|Vote % for|
|Rural||28 (38)||33 (31)||26 (19)||13 (12)|
|Urban||29 (28)||35 (31)||29 (25)||8 (17)|
The survey found Amarinder Singh was the spontaneous CM choice of close to one fourth of the respondents (down by six percentage points from December) and 94 percent of them were found to be voting for the Congress. 6 percent of the respondents favoured AAP’s Bhagwant Mann and 7 per cent to Arvind Kejriwal for the post of Chief Minister.
Amarinder Singh is still most voters’ spontaneous preference for CM but his rating has declined in a month; Badals also highly popular
|Dec 2016||Jan 2017|
|Prakash Singh Badal||20||19|
|Harsimrat Kaur Badal||1||6|
According to the survey, around 85% feel that the chief minister of the state must be from Punjab. This sentiment has strengthened further in the last one month.
|‘The chief minister of Punjab must be from Punjab’|
|All voters||85 (79)||8 (13)|
|Cong voters||89 (82)||6 (11)|
|SAD+ voters||89 (83)||7 (9)|
|AAP voters||82 (70)||13 (21)|
If in December, SAD-BJP were slightly ahead in the race despite leading a deeply unpopular government, in this round we find that their vote share has declined drastically despite the anti-incumbency sentiment against them having weakened somewhat from 60 percent to 52 percent in the last one month.
Anti-incumbency sentiment still strong but has weakened slightly since December
|SAD-BJP govt. should get another chance||24||23|
|SAD-BJP govt. should not get another chance||60||52|
Aam Aadmi Party still stands a spoiler in Punjab according to 47 per cent respondents, while about 32 per cent believe the party is a serious contender and can win.
Most still see AAP as a spoiler than a strong contender
just a spoiler
|AAP a serious contender; can win||No|
|All voters||47 (43)||32 (34)||21 (23)|
|Cong voters||65 (56)||15 (20)||19 (24)|
|SAD+ voters||65 (52)||17 (18)||18 (31)|
|AAP+ voters||10 (12)||80 (82)||10 (7)|
|Oth’s voters||27 (38)||12 (33)||61 (29)|
According to the survey, there is a split over Congress getting benefitted by Sidhu’s joining. Though in Majha, the move is likely to work or Congress as around 54 per cent support Siddhu joining the party.
Siddhu effect is limited to Majha region and is perhaps helping Congress here
|All voters||36 (28)||36 (20)||28 (52)|
|Malwa||30 (23)||43 (21)||28 (56)|
|Majha||54 (44)||17 (16)||29 (40)|
|Doaba||33 (29)||36 (24)||32 (48)|
The survey found drug addiction to be the third most important election issue after unemployment and development. In the December survey, drug addiction had emerged as the fifth most important issue. Asked an open-ended question about what would be the single-most important issue for them while voting, one in every five (21 percent) voters said it would be joblessness, about one in every six (18 percent) said development, and one in every seven (14 percent) said it would be the problem of drugs.
Drug addiction is now third most important election issue after development and unemployment; in December it had been fifth most important
|If polls are held today, the most|
important voting issue will be…
|Dec 2016||Jan 2017|
|Electricity, roads, water supply||1||2|
The survey was conducted from January 15 through January 24, 2017 among 3462 voters in 187 locations (polling stations) spread across 39 assembly constituencies.
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