Punjab headed for hung assembly, Congress to be single largest party: ABP News Survey

By: ABP News Bureau
Updated: 31 Jan 2017 07:36 PM
NEW DELHI: The ruling Shiromani Akali-Bharatiya Janata Party combine in Punjab seems to be rapidly losing steam just ahead of the state assembly elections. According to the latest survey by ABP News-Lok Niti CSDS Survey, SAD-BJP has been reduced to 28-36 seats as compared to 50-58 seats in December 2016.

Congress seems to have gained with 47-55 seats. While AAP is predicted to dent the SAD share and get about 26-34 seats in Punjab  polls which is headed for a hung assembly.


 




























Seat estimate

Dec 2016
Seat estimate

Jan 2017
Indian National Congress (Cong) 41-49 47-55
Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (SAD-BJP/SAD+) 50-58 28-36
Aam Aadmi Party-Lok Insaaf Party (AAP+) 12-18 26-34
Others 1-5 0-4

 

The second round of the opinion poll conducted by ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS in the state finds the SAD-BJP alliance to have fallen back by six per cent to 28% in terms of vote share in a span of just one month. The Congress which till a month ago was trailing the ruling combine by about three points has now taken the lead with 34 per cent. But the real gainer over the last month has been the Aam Aadmi Party whose vote share has risen by six percentage points to 27 percent.

Overall Estimated Vote Share if Assembly Polls had been held in third-fourth weeks of Jan




























Vote estimate

Jan 2017

(%)
Change since

Dec 2016

(% points)
Indian National Congress (Cong) 34 +3
Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (SAD-BJP/SAD+) 28 -6
Aam Aadmi Party-Lok Insaaf Party (AAP+) 27 +6
Others 11 -3

 

The Aam Aadmi party, which is hoping to build on its 2014 Lok Sabha election breakthrough in Punjab, is doing extremely well in the Malwa region where the survey found it to be leading the triangular race with 33 percent votes. This region holds as many as 69 of the state’s 117 assembly seats.

Region-wise Vote: AAP now leads triangular race in Malwa, Cong well ahead in Majha































Frontrunner Second Third
Malwa - 69 seats AAP+ 33 (26) Cong 29 (28) SAD+ 28 (33) Oth 10 (13)
Majha - 25 seats Cong 48 (38) SAD+ 22 (35) AAP+ 14 (10) Oth 16 (17)
Doaba - 23 seats SAD+ 36 (36) Cong 33 (32) AAP+ 23 (17) Oth 8 (15)

 

According to the survey, in rural Punjab, Congress is predicted to overtake the ruling alliance. In urban, Congress takes a lead with 35 per cent and AAP is at around 29 per cent.

Congress overtakes SAD+ in rural Punjab
























Vote % for

SAD+
Vote % for

Cong.
Vote % for

AAP+
Vote % for

Oth.
Rural 28 (38) 33 (31) 26 (19) 13 (12)
Urban 29 (28) 35 (31) 29 (25) 8 (17)

 

The survey found Amarinder Singh was the spontaneous CM choice of close to one fourth of the respondents (down by six percentage points from December) and 94 percent of them were found to be voting for the Congress. 6 percent of the respondents favoured AAP’s Bhagwant Mann and 7 per cent to Arvind Kejriwal for the post of Chief Minister.

Amarinder Singh is still most voters’ spontaneous preference for CM but his rating has declined in a month; Badals also highly popular





















































Dec 2016 Jan 2017
Amarinder Singh 29 23
Prakash Singh Badal 20 19
Harsimrat Kaur Badal 1 6
Bikramjit Majithia 1 4
Sukhbir Badal 1 3
Bhagwant Mann 8 6
Arvind Kejriwal 4 7
Others 5 9
No response 31 23

 

According to the survey, around 85% feel that the chief minister of the state must be from Punjab. This sentiment has strengthened further in the last one month.































‘The chief minister of Punjab must be from Punjab’
Agree Disagree
All voters 85 (79) 8 (13)
Cong voters 89 (82) 6 (11)
SAD+ voters 89 (83) 7 (9)
AAP voters 82 (70) 13 (21)

 

If in December, SAD-BJP were slightly ahead in the race despite leading a deeply unpopular government, in this round we find that their vote share has declined drastically despite the anti-incumbency sentiment against them having weakened somewhat from 60 percent to 52 percent in the last one month.

Anti-incumbency sentiment still strong but has weakened slightly since December























Dec 2016 Jan

2017
SAD-BJP govt. should get another chance 24 23
SAD-BJP govt. should not get another chance 60 52
Can’t say/Maybe 15 25

 

Aam Aadmi Party still stands a spoiler in Punjab according to 47 per cent respondents, while about 32 per cent believe the party is a serious contender and can win.

Most still see AAP as a spoiler than a strong contender































































AAP is

just a spoiler
AAP a serious contender; can win No

opinion
All voters 47 (43) 32 (34) 21 (23)
Cong voters 65 (56) 15 (20) 19 (24)
SAD+ voters 65 (52) 17 (18) 18 (31)
AAP+ voters 10 (12) 80 (82) 10 (7)
Oth’s voters 27 (38) 12 (33) 61 (29)
Malwa 44 38 18
Majha 50 17 34
Doaba 50 34 16

 

According to the survey, there is a split over Congress getting benefitted by Sidhu’s joining. Though in Majha, the move is likely to work or Congress as around 54 per cent support Siddhu joining the party.

Siddhu effect is limited to Majha region and is perhaps helping Congress here

































Support Siddhu

joining Congress
Oppose Siddhu

joining Congress
No

response
All voters 36 (28) 36 (20) 28 (52)
Malwa 30 (23) 43 (21) 28 (56)
Majha 54 (44) 17 (16) 29 (40)
Doaba 33 (29) 36 (24) 32 (48)

 

The survey found drug addiction to be the third most important election issue after unemployment and development. In the December survey, drug addiction had emerged as the fifth most important issue. Asked an open-ended question about what would be the single-most important issue for them while voting, one in every five (21 percent) voters said it would be joblessness, about one in every six (18 percent) said development, and one in every seven (14 percent) said it would be the problem of drugs.

Drug addiction is now third most important election issue after development and unemployment; in December it had been fifth most important































































If polls are held today, the most

important voting issue will be…
Dec 2016 Jan 2017
Unemployment 20 21
Development 18 18
Drug addiction 6 14
Price rise 13 9
Corruption 8 7
Poverty 5 2
Farmer woes 2 1
Demonetization 2 1
Electricity, roads, water supply 1 2
Other issues 5 6
No opinion 20 19

 

The survey was conducted from January 15 through January 24, 2017 among 3462 voters in 187 locations (polling stations) spread across 39 assembly constituencies.

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