ABP News opinion poll predicts Congress’ victory as anti-incumbency hits BJP hard in Rajasthan

Rajasthan Assembly Election 2018: ABP News Lokniti CSDS opinion poll predicts that Congress will lead in North, West and Haroti regions while BJP will have an edge in Central, Matsya and Southern region.

By: | Updated: 08 Nov 2018 08:27 PM
Rajasthan Assembly Election 2018: Congress’ victory as anti-incumbency hits BJP hard, predicts ABP News opinion poll

Experts claim that Vasundhara Raje appears will be facing a strong wave of anti-incumbency and people will opt for change. (IMAGE: @hanumanbeniwal/ Twitter)

NEW DELHI: In the ABP News Lokniti CSDS conducted opinion poll, the results show that in the case of Rajasthan, the Congress party is likely to relinquish power with a tally of 110 seats while the ruling party BJP may have to face a defeat with 84 seats, 26 short of the Congress’. In the state, the ruling BJP is pitted directly against the Congress.  The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had earlier expressed confidence that it would register a "record victory" in the upcoming state Assembly elections and retain power. Earlier, BJP had won 163 seats in 2013 assembly poll and the Congress had just garnered 21. Congress is said to snap up 45% vote share while BJP may get 41%. The ABP News Lokniti CSDS opinion also said that Congress will lead in North, West and Haroti regions while BJP will have an edge in Central, Matsya and Southern region.

The state which is currently ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party with Vasundhara Raje as its Chief Minister in the latest poll projection could be seen as a major setback for the BJP which is seeking a second term under the leadership of Raje. Experts claim that Raje appears will be facing a strong wave of anti-incumbency and people will opt for change. The Voters’ spontaneous preferences for CM are as - Raje 32%, Gehlot 26%, Sachin Pilot 14%, Hanuman Beniwal 4%.

The opinion poll also showed that Congress Ashok Gehlot is the second most liked leader in Rajasthan after Modi while Rahul Gandhi and Vasundhara Raje least liked. This shows that even though the anti-incumbency sentiment is strong against BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal popularity continues to be high. Rajasthan is also the only state where a greater proportion of voters responded negatively when asked if their incumbent government should get another chance. This decline in Rajasthan could be seen as a major setback for the party.

For the upcoming election, the Congress had organised 'Sankalp Rallies' to raise the issues of "anarchism, corruption, inflation crime and atrocities on women under the BJP rule". During the opinion poll, when voters were asked who they want as CM if Congress wins elections, Ashok Gehlot was more preferred than Sachin Pilot among Cong leaning voters. Even among the young and urban voters, Gehlot is more popular than Pilot.

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According to the opinion poll, other parties including Mayawati’s BSP may gather 6 seats in the 200-member assembly. BSP is likely to secure 14% vote share.  The state party vice-president Dungarram Gedar "Our preparations are in full swing and we will contest on all 200 seats in the forthcoming elections." In the state, districts in eastern Rajasthan like Bharatpur, Dholpur, Karauli, Sawaimadhopur, Alwar and in northern parts like Hanumangarh, Sriganganagar, Bikaner has a significant number of Scheduled Castes (SC) population, which is the vote bank of the party. Across castes and communities, there is a sentiment that the state government has not taken care of the interests of their community; this sentiment is strongest among Jats, Adivasis and Muslims. Rajasthan has 34 SC and 25 ST seats out of the total 200 seats.



Just before the election commission’s announcement of poll dates, Raje announced free electricity for farmers. Congress fumed at the declaration and accused the election commission of postponing the date announcement only to favour the BJP before the model code of conduct gets into effect.  In the state, polling will be held on December 7 along with Telangana. Those who were 18 years of age as on January 1, 2018 could get their names added to the voters' list by till November 19.  Counting of votes will be taken up in all the five states on December 11.

READ: Assembly Election 2018 - ABP Opinion Poll Live Updates

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